Forecast & Planning Model

Driver-Based Rolling 24-Month Forecast Starter

This is the model you use when the annual budget is too static and the finance team needs a rolling operating view that leadership can challenge without getting lost in spreadsheet theatre. The point is not to forecast every line. The point is to surface the few drivers that actually move revenue, burn, and runway.

24-month horizon Base / upside / downside / stress INR / USD FX aware Headcount and CAC linked

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Workbook Structure

Keep the file short enough that someone else can still run it next month.

Tab	What lives here	Owner
Assumptions & Drivers	Only the highlighted editable inputs in the downloadable workbook: new logos, ARPA, retention, FX, CAC, hiring pace, GST, and collections.	FP&A lead
Revenue Build	Segment-by-segment logic for SaaS, services, and other revenue streams	FP&A + commercial finance
Expense Build	Payroll, software, cloud, marketing, and discretionary spend by controllable bucket	FP&A + budget owners
3-Statement / Cash View	P&L, simplified balance sheet, cash bridge, runway logic	Finance
Scenarios	Scenario switches, overrides, and headline movement summary	Finance leadership
Dashboard	Short management view with 6-8 metrics and 3 decision prompts	CFO / CEO review

Example Output

Sample monthly output for a Series B SaaS business.

Month	Revenue	Gross margin	Headcount	EBITDA	Runway
Jul	INR 9.9 Cr	64%	54	INR -1.3 Cr	11.4 months
Aug	INR 10.3 Cr	64.5%	56	INR -1.1 Cr	11.1 months
Sep downside	INR 9.7 Cr	63%	57	INR -1.6 Cr	10.2 months

Yellow-cell rule

Do not let scenario logic spread across the workbook. Leadership should be able to change the core drivers in one place and see the movement immediately.

How To Run It

Simple operating rhythm.

Load the last closed month of actuals before touching the next forecast cycle.
Refresh the 8 core drivers first, then check revenue and expense logic by exception only.
Run base and downside before discussing upside. Upside is not useful if downside is lazy.
Review one scenario pack with the CEO and functional owners in under 45 minutes.
Document any manual overrides in the scenario tab, never inside hidden rows or formulas.

Key Logic

Recurring revenue movement Closing ARR = Opening ARR + New ARR - Churned ARR - Contraction ARR + Expansion ARR

CAC payback CAC Payback = CAC per customer / Monthly gross profit per customer

Runway Runway months = Closing cash / Forward average monthly net burn

Common Mistakes

Too many inputs that nobody owns
Scenario logic hidden in tabs instead of centralized
Revenue optimism that ignores hiring productivity lag
Cash view disconnected from collections and GST timing

When This Tool Shines

Use it when the business is scaling fast enough that the annual budget becomes stale within one quarter, but leadership still needs one file they can trust for planning, spending, and runway conversations.

Adapt To Your Context

Built for speed and clarity, not spreadsheet heroics.

Adapt the driver set to your business model, but keep the discipline: one input sheet, one scenario layer, and one management view that names the decisions. If you want this rebuilt around your actual commercial structure, capital constraints, and reporting cadence, start from the toolkit hub and we can take it from there.

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